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Lupin LUPN.NS LPC IN
EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS
Good approvals- Monodox and Cipro OS
Global Markets Research
6 March 2014
Quick Note
Target price
Lupin gains FDA approval for generic Monodox and Cipro OS
Closing price
Limited competition and supply constraints make Monodox an
interesting opportunity for Lupin
Research analysts
Monodox approval is a surprise and is not explicitly modelled in our estimates. Monodox caps (generic: Doxycycline Monohydrate) has annual Saion Mukherjee - NFASL
sales of USD 180m in the US with limited competition. Monodox is available in three strengths: 50mg, 75mg and 100mg. The brand Monodox has more than 70% market share, given generic supply constraints. Lalit Kumar - NFASL
The 75mg strength is the most interesting opportunity, in our view. The strength accounts for USD 90m in sales with only Ranbaxy and the innovator Aqua Pharm. In terms of sales Acqua Pharm has 73% market share. In 50mg and 100mg, the competition is relatively high with generics approvals for Ranbaxy, Par and Actavis. Both strengths combined represent USD 90m in sales. However, there are supply constraints with the generics and most of the market share is currently with the innovator. Acqua Pharm has ~78% market share in sales term as per IMS. Given the limited competition, LPC could record ~USD 20m in revenues from the product in FY15, in our view. Exclusivity in Cipro OS
Cipro OS (Generic: Ciprofloxacin Oral suspension) has annual sales of USD 8.6m. The opportunity size is much smaller. Lupin is the first filer and is likely to remain the only player for a considerable period. We think the product is likely to have sales of less than USD 5m, but at a higher margin. We believe Lupin’s US pipeline has the potential to surprise on the upside. On our EPS estimates, the stock currently trades at 20.5x FY15E and 18.1xFY16. Retain Buy. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Appendix A-1
Analyst Certification
We, Saion Mukherjee and Lalit Kumar, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures
The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may refer to one or more
Nomura Group companies.
Materially mentioned issuers
Price date
Stock rating Sector rating Disclosures
Lupin (LPC IN)
INR 983 (06-Mar-2014) Buy (Sector rating: N/A)
Rating and target price chart (three year history) Rating Target price
Closing price
For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology Our target price of INR1,053 is based on 20x one-year forward (blended FY15-16F) earnings of INR
52.7 /sh. The benchmark index for this stock is MSCI India.
Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price The key risks to our Buy rating are: a) generic competition in
Suprax; b) delay in approvals of key products in the US factored in our estimates, and; c) pricing and market share gains in key
products in the US vs. our estimates.
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